The U.S. and Europe are stagnating. Vehicle sales have plummeted and the slow introduction of the electric car in the West has now been completely put on “standby”.
There are several causes. First of all, the batteries have not yet advanced sufficiently to allow a range that allows long trips. In addition, the introduction of these cars requires significant investments in infrastructure that are unaffordable in this day and age (plugs in every garage, chargers at gas stations, etc.). The electric car seems doomed for now despite our increasing dependence on oil. But…
What if the electric car started in China?
If we think about it, it’s not such a far-fetched idea. These could be some of the reasons:
– Pollution in Chinese cities is already a national crisis, and the main cause is traffic. Politicians living in Beijing don’t seem too happy to be poisoning themselves on a daily basis.
– China is still a planned economy. It is the only country where a massive campaign for electric car adoption in large cities is possible. It is also a culture that adapts very well to change, as the last 30 years have shown.
– Investment capacity is high. Not only political will is needed to bring about such a change, but also public and private investment, which seems impossible in Europe.
– The critical mass is very high. The demand that could be generated in China in the next few years if the electric car is launched (and with favorable policy and fiscal measures) could exceed that of the rest of the world combined. Profitability would become the least of the problems for carmakers.
– It is strategically perfect for China. The world’s second economic power is fighting very hard to place some of its technology brands among the world’s elite in their respective categories (Huawei, Lenovo…). Becoming an international benchmark for electric vehicles would allow it to export brands, services and even patents, whereas up to now it has basically relied on exporting products.
– It would radically change China’s image. Such a revolution would sweep away forever the cliché of copying and low cost that has been associated with the country for many years.
– There are precedents: electric motorcycles replaced bicycles in the last 10 years. An idea that did not take off in the West because they only reach 40 km/h, even though their price is very competitive (around 200 US$).
– It is not as expensive as it seems. Only with political and fiscal support, in addition to a media campaign, could the objective be achieved. Private enterprise would not think twice about taking advantage of the opportunity. In addition, the investment would be recovered in the short term.
For all these reasons, it does not seem at all unreasonable to me that China is considering adopting this technology, which has not yet taken off in the West.
What do you think?
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